Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.564668 2.060685 2.730925 3.726701 5.211380 7.416676e+00 1.109073e+01
2025-01-19 0.946026 1.398596 2.110512 3.376274 5.724837 1.026494e+01 2.085571e+01
2025-01-26 0.669617 1.090351 1.844935 3.427390 7.074882 1.647674e+01 4.989827e+01
2025-02-02 0.522750 0.930778 1.760082 3.815867 9.826245 3.185875e+01 1.773844e+02
2025-02-09 0.426775 0.825178 1.737153 4.413867 14.580495 7.269826e+01 1.157043e+03
2025-02-16 0.338161 0.698041 1.605749 4.688078 19.668190 1.595909e+02 1.613685e+04
2025-02-23 0.260976 0.565471 1.392073 4.543459 23.471567 3.145095e+02 2.142974e+06
2025-03-02 0.201802 0.454004 1.179540 4.220751 26.214286 5.932765e+02 NaN
2025-03-09 0.170345 0.401596 1.117624 4.518456 36.546650 2.115350e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.144716 0.355404 1.051881 4.766829 50.520512 1.107998e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 0.126359 0.323256 1.018978 5.216326 75.972989 2.341288e+05 NaN
2025-03-30 0.110841 0.294043 0.981611 5.641244 114.836390 2.430325e+12 NaN
2025-04-06 0.092323 0.250692 0.868851 5.399313 140.834351 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.076359 0.210728 0.749855 4.929648 155.625828 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.066740 0.189096 0.702748 5.081266 227.621924 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.060838 0.178364 0.702048 5.785275 448.388269 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.056443 0.171558 0.718458 6.864344 1120.883609 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.050973 0.158845 0.694949 7.403013 2354.611816 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.044856 0.141707 0.635211 7.200566 3565.619700 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.039168 0.124730 0.567153 6.672424 4423.809124 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.036047 0.117291 0.554474 7.234384 12457.130224 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.033146 0.109902 0.537740 7.712007 41529.862103 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.030933 0.104781 0.533423 8.561627 339156.347958 NaN NaN